GRAHAM-CASSIDY REPEAL BILL DEADLINE:

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Molina

Wow. Thanks to Bob Herman of Axios for the heads up:

Molina Healthcare Announces Leadership Changes

CAO Joseph W. White Named Interim CEO and Appointed CFO
Board Initiates Permanent CEO Search

Dale B. Wolf Named Chairman of the Board

Pre-Releases First Quarter 2017 GAAP Net Income Per Share

 

*(Disclaimer: No, that's not a direct quote from Dr. Molina, but it's a pretty damned spot-on paraphrase).

A couple of weeks ago I noted that a buttload of heavy players in the healthcare field sent a joint letter to Trump, Tom Price and everyone else under the sun making it pretty clear how vital resolving the CSR issue is, and what the consequences would be if Congress and Trump don't make good on them.

Today, Molina Healthcare, which has around 1 million ACA exchange enrollees at the moment (roughly 9% of all effectuated enrollees) lowered the boom even harder (via Bob Herman of Axios):

Molina will exit exchanges if ACA payments aren't made

Well, the early reviews are in, and it ain't pretty.

Democrats, progressives and patient advocates hate TrumpubliCare, which obviously surprises no one.

The American Health Association and American Hospital Association both hate TrumpubliCare (hoping the American Heart Association chimes in as well so I can make it an "AHA, AHA & AHA hates AHCA" trifecta).

Conservatives hate TrumpubliCare (for very different reasons, of course), which is perhaps more surprising.

 

Friday, January 20th:

Politically, the big unknown is whether or not Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell will get away with trying to pin the blame for this on the Democrats/the law itself. That's why they've been pushing the "Obamacare is already in a death spiral!" claim hard for the past few weeks, even though it quite simply isn't.

...So, if this does end up in a worst-case scenario, Trump's "stop enforcing the mandate altogether!" order here could end up causing that death spiral even if the GOP doesn't technically end up repealing anything legislatively. The carriers would start announcing that they're bailing next year as soon as this spring (remember, the first paperwork for 2018 exchange participation has to be filed in April or May), and McConnell/Ryan would simply say, "See?? We told you it was collapsing all by itself! We didn't touch nuthin'!!"

Tuesday, January 24th:

Thanks to Adam Cancryn for calling my attention to Molina's quarterly earnings report, which has this rather eye-opening section:

I've used Molina's Q1 2016 report, along with the Q4 2015 reports of Cigna and Humana, to further fill in the "Major Insurer" table I've been working on all this week; here's what it looks like now:

After UnitedHealthcare freaked everyone in the health insurance investor community out (along with enrollees, politicians, healthcare reporters/pundits, etc.) with their Thursday morning announcement that they might drop off the ACA exchanges in 2017, just 2 years after entering the exchanges and just 1 month after painting a rosy picture of the situation, several other major players in the individual market decided to calm everyone the hell down:

U.S. health insurers Aetna Inc and Anthem Inc on Friday sought to reassure investors that their Obamacare businesses had not worsened after UnitedHealth Group Inc warned of mounting losses in that sector.

Aetna and Anthem said their individual insurance businesses, which include the plans created by President Barack Obama's national healthcare reform law, had performed in line with projections through October. Both backed their earnings forecasts for 2015.

Over at LifeHealth Pro, Allison Bell notes the 2nd quarterly earnings reports for 4 major insurance carriers: Aetna, Molina, Cigna and Health Net.

Unfortunately for my purposes, most of the info here relates to dollars (which is understandable for earnings reports, of course), but there was one relevant enrollment number given:

Molina Healthcare

Molina is reporting $39 million in net income for the latest quarter on $3.5 billion in revenue, compared with $7.8 million in net income on $2.3 billion in revenue for the second quarter of 2014.

The company ended the quarter providing or administering medical coverage for 3.4 million people, up from 2.3 million people a year earlier.

Enrollment in the company's PPACA public exchange qualified health plans (QHPs) increased to 261,000 from 18,000.

That's an impressive year over year increase...over 14x as many ACA exchange enrollees for Molina this year than last.