Connecticut

This is a "mini" update, as it doesn't include the final weekend, but it still means that CT nudged over their internal 100K target without those last 2 crucial days:

As of 2/13, there were 103,007 QHP Enrollees and 433,429 medicaid customers. #AHCTBoDMeeting

— Access Health CT (@AccessHealthCT) February 19, 2015

The Medicaid number is a bit misleading; I'm almost certain  that 433K figure refers to everyone in Medicaid state-wide, not just via ACA expansion. The state only has 3.6 million people total; I find it difficult to believe that 12% of the population falls into the expansion range specifically.

They also threw in the SHOP tally:

Dental plans & the SHOP program continues to show solid gains. Over 1,100 SHOP members enrolled. #AHCTBoDMeeting

Just a few hours ago, Access Health CT issued what seemed to be a fairly solid, hard-line statement about midnight tonight being their open enrollment deadline.

Apparently the moves made by HC.gov, CO, NY, CA, MA, WA & MD (just moments earlier) got to Connecticut...

(sorry, couldn't resist)

Connecticut's official 2015 QHP target is an even 100K. They were 99% of the way there as of last night, with no technical problems to speak of gumming up the works:

As of Jan. 30, 95,700 people had signed up for private insurance through Access Health, including about 66,700 repeat customers from 2014. (On Monday, officials said more than 99,000 people had signed up for private insurance plans through the exchange.) By comparison, last year, slightly more than 80,000 people bought insurance through the exchange (though a few thousand dropped out as the year went on).

My own target for CT is 114K. To reach that, they'll have to enroll just 2,100/day for the final week, or less than twice the rate they've averaged so far. This shouldn't be a problem; nationally, I'm expecting QHP enrollments to average around 286K/day all this week, which is around 2.33x more than the average to date, and Connecticut has one of the most solid operations of any state.

This isn't a formal press release, but according to NBC Connecticut, Access Health CT has enrolled "more than 96,000" people into Qualified Health Plans (QHPs). The article ran yesterday, so presumably the number is current as of February 2nd at the latest:

Connecticut residents signing up for health insurance through Access Health CT must enroll by Feb. 15 or face a potential tax penalty from the federal government.

"We're on track to hit our [enrollment] goals," said Access Health CT's acting CEO, Jim Wadleigh.

The state's health care marketplace aims to sign up 100,000 private citizens during the current enrollment period. With less than two weeks left, more than 96,000 residents have signed up for qualifying health plans.

About 30,000 of them are new sign-ups, Wadleigh said, adding that all avenues for enrollment have been successful.

The Access Health CT board of directors is holding a meeting this morning and promises to liveblog the latest developments, including updated enrollment numbers.

Connecticut hasn't updated their numbers since 12/15, when they announced 66K renewals and 19.4K new enrollees, so this should be somewhat interesting.

  • Remember that today (Jan. 15th) is the deadline for February 1st coverage

ENROLLMENT:

  • As of last Friday, "around" 90,000 customers (20% higher than last year)
  • 1,500 - 2,000/day...on track to hit/exceed (combined)
  • last year: 100 - 120K total (includes Medicaid)
  • midnight tonight: should have over 500K in system (includes Medicaid)
  • dental: 1K any day now

OPERATIONS:

  • IRS form 1095 (tax credit form)
  • education/outreach/etc. programs already in gear
  • some people already asking questions, etc. re taxes

SHOP:

No formal press release yet, but CT is the 2nd state (after Kentucky) to announce how many 2014 enrollees were automatically renewed (as opposed to manually renewing):

66,000 of our customers were auto enrolled in our system and continue to have health coverage for 2015. #OEUpdate

— Access Health CT (@AccessHealthCT) December 17, 2014

We added roughly 20,000 new QHP customers & 46,000 new Medicaid customers over the last month. #OE2015Update

— Access Health CT (@AccessHealthCT) December 17, 2014

The most recent update I have from Connecticut was 13,000 new enrollees, but that was only through last Friday, before the big weekend push. That means they added another 7K over the weekend; not bad!

As you can see from the graphic I posted yesterday (and had to revise several times throughout the day), the official enrollment deadline for private policies starting on January 1st, 2015 has now passed for all 37 states operating via HealthCare.Gov, as well as residents of DC, Hawaii and Kentucky. It's certainly possible that any or all of these will announce some sort of "special circumstances" allowance for those who didn't make the midnight cut-off (10pm in Alaska), but I'm assuming those would be done strictly on a case-by-case basis.

OK, so what about the remaining 11 states?

Well, 4 of them (MD, MA, RI & WA) had later deadlines for January coverage all along: Maryland on 12/18 (Thursday) and the other 3 on 12/23 (next Tuesday).

New York and Idaho bumped their deadlines out from yesterday until 12/20 (Saturday), although Idaho had previously claimed that their deadline was 12/23, but are now claiming that it was originally 12/15. I still don't understand what happened there, but so be it: 12/20 it is for ID.

I wasn't really expecting any data drops today, but I've already received surprise updates from California and Massachusetts, and now I can add Connecticut, DC and Hawaii all in one shot (via separate entries):

Connecticut: Last year the state's uninsured rate dropped by about half – from nearly 8 percent to 4 percent. Likely for this reason Kevin Counihan, the CEO of Access Health CT, was scooped up by the federal government to help fix Healthcare.gov. Latest figures for this year come from Dec. 12, which showed 39,000 new Medicaid enrollees and 13,000 new private health plans, according to an email from a state official. Late Monday, Access Health CT announced that it was allowing a grace period until Dec. 19 for enrollment that would begin January 2015. Consumers who had started an application before Monday could have four additional days to fill out their information.

That's 13K new enrollees only; again, it's safe to assume at least a 1:1 ratio between new & renewed enrollees, so I'm calling it at least 26K total for CT so far.

THIS JUST IN...

For Immediate Release

STATEMENT FROM ACCESS HEALTH CT ACTING CEO JIM WADLEIGH ON TONIGHT’S OPEN ENROLLMENT DEADLINE FOR HEALTH CARE COVERAGE BEGINNING JANUARY 1, 2015

Hartford, Conn. (December 15, 2014) – In advance of tonight’s midnight deadline for coverage beginning January 1, Access Health CT (AHCT) Acting CEO Jim Wadleigh has released the following statement:

“The deadline to sign up for quality, affordable health care coverage that begins on January 1, 2015 is tonight at midnight. If customers have an application started and select a plan before midnight tonight, they can still get coverage beginning January 1, as long as they complete the application and get us all the relevant information by midnight this Friday, December 19.

Hmmm...on the surface these numbers seem fairly clear: 8,058 QHPs, 20,942 Medicaid. However, the wording of the article, combined with the fact that 8K in 26 days is only 310/day so far (versus 2014's 396/day average) makes me suspect that this only refers to new enrollments and doesn't include renewals of existing enrollees. In addition, the previous data release by AccessHealthCT clarified that it only included new enrollments.

So far, in the ongoing round of open enrollment that began Nov. 15, some 8,058 Connecticut residents have enrolled in plans offered by private insurers and 20,942 have enrolled in Medicaid plans, Madrak said. That’s more than the first year at around this time. However, the numbers last year were reversed and some 14,365 residents enrolled with one of the private insurance carriers and 9,075 had enrolled in Medicaid through the close of business Dec. 4, 2013

If this only includes new enrollees, then the odds are that the total number is actually at least double that (16K+) and likely more like 20K+.

I posted Connecticut's first week QHP & Medicaid numbers a few days ago. However, thanks to Dan Mangan providing a direct link to the press release itself, I can now add one other data point: SHOP (Small Business) exchange enrollments already have over 1,000 enrolled employees in just the first week of the 2nd Open Enrollment period (1,003 to be precise)!

To get a sense of how dramatic this is, consider that as of July, Access Health CT had only 602 total covered lives in SHOP plans. The distinction between employees and total lives is important, since the latter assumes perhaps 2-3 individuals covered for each employee enrolled.

In other words, 1,003 employees covered likely means perhaps 1,500 - 2,000 actual people covered by those policies...which means that in just one week, Connecticut may already have tripled the total people enrolled in SHOP plans for the full 2014 period.

Hah...I knew I should've waited a couple more hours to send out the newsletter for the evening...

In the first week of open enrollment, 2,659 new customers signed up for private insurance plans and 8,945 people signed up for Medicaid through Access Health CT, the state’s health insurance exchange.

To reiterate: This is new enrollees only, not renewals:

The figures include people who had not previously had coverage through Access Health. The exchange did not release the number of people who currently have coverage through the exchange and signed up for 2015 coverage.

Oh, yeah, and I'm guessing that #ObamaDentata will mean more clarifications of this nature going forward:

Separately, 123 people signed up for dental coverage sold through the exchange.

Well, there's your transparancy improvement, folks...

Looks like Access Health Connecticut is having a press conference even as I type this...

CT exchange update: 74,334 people in private insurance plans, 208,468 signed up for Medicaid

— Arielle Levin Becker (@ariellelb) October 16, 2014

As of April 19th, 79,192 people in Connecticut had enrolled in QHPs. Since their non-payment rate has been "in the single digits" (call it 8%), that means around 72.8K paid enrollees as of then.

If there are currently 74,334 enrolled, that means there are 2% more enrolled (and paying) today than there were 6 months ago, which is right in line with my projections as well as the national 7.3 million figure mentioned by HHS Secretary Burwell as of August.

Meanwhile, Medicaid enrollees via the exchange are now up to 208,468. This is only a small increase over a month ago (around 1,400 people), but there's a very good reason for that:

A ton of great ACA news coming out of Connecticut this morning, courtesy of Arielle Levin Becker (posted in reverse-chronological order, newest at the top):

Arielle Levin Becker provides some updated numbers out of Connecticut, which is great...but I'll have to do some calculations to parse the data out for my purposes:

Current Access Health membership: 76,094 in private insurance, 207,020 in Medicaid (total Medicaid enrollment is much higher)

— Arielle Levin Becker (@ariellelb) September 18, 2014

OK, so those are the current enrollment numbers. 76,094 QHPs is 4% net attrition from the 4/19 total of 79,192, or less than 0.8% per month, which is fantastic.

However, since that 76K figure combines both additions and subtractions (ie, it's the net total, not gross), I can't really tell what the cumulative total is, which is what I use for my off-season projection chart.

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