Several people have noted that my estimated Exchange QHP number as of today (around 6.58M) has actually surpassed the "combined" Medicaid/CHIP number (6.49M). This is obviously a long way from just a couple of months ago, when Medicaid enrollments were outpacing QHPs by a factor of 3 or 4 to one.
However, this brings up two important points about estimated enrollments vs. documented ones.
I have to be careful about using this as an actual spreadsheet entry because it doesn't specify the start date, the end date or the QHP/Medicaid breakout, but things are moving so quickly now that I'm not sure how much difference it makes:
According to @NYStateofHealth Nearly 100,000 New Yorkers have enrolled over the last week.
NY State of Health had already reported 717K total enrollments as of 3/23, which had increased to 782K as of 3/28, which accounts for 65,000 of this number (call it 99K since they say "nearly" 100K). Call it 34,000 in the past 2 days.
If the QHP/Medicaid breakout is the same 38% / 62% that the other 65K from last week was (it should be very close to this), that's another 12,920 QHPs in 2 days, or 6,460 exchange QHPs per day.
I can't really use any of these numbers directly in the spreadsheet, but some excellent data to show the impact in Washington (state). Also note the point regarding many people enrolling directly with the insurance companies:
Statewide, about 375,000 people have insurance due to this law. That’s the net gain, counting those who had their policies “canceled” last winter (most simply signed up for a new one with their same company).
The Medicaid program in the state has grown 25 percent since October, from 1.2 million to 1.5 million.
...The private individual insurance market has also grown, by 19 percent, from 272,000 plans last October to 325,000 today. These figures include plans sold on the state exchange and directly by companies.
Whether that’s big enough to be stable and affordable remains to be seen. But before Obamacare it was shrinking.
Plus the state says there are 32,000 young adults on their parents’ policies due to the new law.
The line started forming at 5 a.m. in front of an enrollment center in Miami -- where trained workers have signed up 25,000 of their fellow Floridians since November. It was standing-room-only at a center in Houston yesterday.
The final deadline to get covered in 2014 is in just two days, and Americans are literally lining up at grassroots events across the country to make sure they're covered.
Some nice, solid numbers in an otherwise negative article about Maryland bailing on their existing software in favor of Connecticut's:
O'Malley said that as of Wednesday, 273,582 people have signed up for coverage. That includes 220,043 people (80% of the total enrollment) who had enrolled in Medicaid, and 53,539 people (20% of the total enrollment) who had enrolled in private insurance.
This brings MD's QHPs up from 49,293 on 3/22, an increase of 4,246 in 4 days; the Medicaid number hasn't changed.
A 1,000 increase in the number of paid exchange QHPs since 3/22:
Since Nevada Health Link opened, the state's exchange for insurance, there have been many problems in finishing the enrollment process.
More than 24,000 Nevadans have enrolled and paid, far lower than the projected estimates.
Meanwhile, Xerox (which botched the Nevada exchange just as Oracle botched Oregon's) thinks they'll be able to "convert" 57,000 of the partially-completed enrollments into full enrollees during the extension period (which actually runs all the way out until May 30th in Nevada's case...):
Xerox officials told the board that they’ve identified about 77,000 people they’ll target during special enrollment, which runs through May 30. Consumers eligible to sign up then include people who have selected an exchange plan but not paid for it, as well as people who qualified through the exchange for a federal premium subsidy but who have not bought a plan.
Company officials said they believe they could convert about 57,000 of the 77,000 targeted consumers into actual enrollees.
OK, not exactly a shocker or particularly relevant until after Monday (unless they're gonna be foolish enough to try and switch over to the new system during the deadline weekend frenzy), but worth noting:
Maryland officials are set to replace the state’s online health-insurance exchange with technology from Connecticut’s insurance marketplace, according to two people familiar with the decision, an acknowledgment that a system that has cost at least $125.5 million is broken beyond repair.
I included the 80K in 4 days info yesterday, but didn't realize the implications of the second sentence until a commentor pointed it out:
The Covered California exchange said sign-ups have been building throughout the week with about 80,000 people picking a health plan Monday through Thursday. An additional 150,000 households created an online account and started the shopping process in the last three days, officials said.
That's 50,000 households--not individuals--PER DAY who JUST ceated an account for 3 days straight.
Pretty sure most of those are actually enrolling even as I type this.
I think this final weekend surge is going to be MUCH larger than even I've been projecting.
Gotta run for the moment, but I'm going ahead and calling it 6.7 million exchange-based QHPs as of now.
OK, I meant to post this yesterday but had to double-check a couple of things with the reporter first. He confirmed that a) the 750K figure was slightly outdated (NY announced a higher total enrollment figure shortly after he posted the story), b) these 10,000 people are indeed enrolled in New York's SHOP exhange for small businesses and are therefore not part of the individual private exchange QHP figure, and c) the 10K figure does include dependents as well as employees.
Therefore, NY's SHOP total just doubled, from around 5,000 as of January to 10,000 today.
Close to 4,000 small businesses across New York state have enrolled their employees in the state's online marketplace for buying health insurance.
The six-month-old market, called an exchange, has become a noteworthy part of the federal Affordable Care Act. The law aims to spark the largest expansion of health insurance nationwide sinceMedicare and Medicaid were created nearly 50 years ago.
Everything I said then is true now, only more so. I appreciate everyone who has helped me out with this project, including the regular site visitors.
Also, just for the hell of it, here's a little snapshot of the site traffic since the begining of the year (I don't have stats from last fall, as I didn't convert the site over from a simple spreadsheet to a true website until the end of December):
As you can see, the first mini-spike happened on Feb. 12, when the January numbers came in and I was absurdly dead-on with my exchange QHP projection. The huge spike at the end culminated yesterday with Paul Krugman's kind words, and traffic peaked at around 17,900 unique visitors.
Looks like the 39K on Monday & Tuesday continued at the same pace all week...supporting my "California 20%" rule (20K in CA = 100K nationally):
SACRAMENTO (AP) — California is seeing a late surge in the number of people signing up for healthinsurance coverage ahead of next week’s deadline – and state officials are encouraging more people to apply.
The state already reported surpassing 1 million enrollees. But Covered California Executive Director Peter Lee said Friday that another 80,000 people enrolled in the past four days alone.
20,000 per day in California is 4x the rate they hit in February.
I'm pretty sure California has now broken 1.2 million all by itself (which makes sense if the 20% rule holds...1.2M = 20% of 6M...)
Based on this and the Oregon entry, I'm increasing my projection from 6.54M to 6.58M as of 3/31.
Another quick update from Oregon; at this point I'm pretty sure that the "Net" QHP number (which removes "terminations & cancellations") is the same as Connecticut--purging the tally of non-payments, adding Oregon to the 100% Paid column:
Medical enrollments through Cover Oregon: 178,057
Total private medical insurance enrollments through Cover Oregon 1: 55,177
Oregon Health Plan enrollments through Cover Oregon: 122,880
Net enrollments: Net private medical: 52,372
This brings Oregon's exchange QHPs up from 50,137 just 3 days earlier, or 2,235...745/day. Compare this with an average of 179/day in February (or 472/day for the first 3 weeks of March).
Medicaid enrollments haven't changed in this report.
As usual for NY, the official press release doesn't include the QHP/Medicaid breakout, but based on past experience someone will point me towards a news story that has it broken out within the hour...anyway, the combined total in the Empire State is now over 782,000:
ALBANY (March 28, 2014) – NY State of Health (NYSOH), the State’s official health plan marketplace, reported that as of 9 a.m. today, 1,130,600 New Yorkers have completed their applications and 782,472 have enrolled for coverage since the launch of the Marketplace on October 1, 2013. More than 70 percent of those who have enrolled to date were uninsured at the time of application.
A rough total number (which I suspect we'll see a lot of this weekend...things are moving very quickly now). Assuming a 20/80 split (typical for Kentucky) of the additional 17,600 total, this should mean roughly 3,500 more QHPs and 14,100 more added to Medicaid, to around 69,500 and 280,500 respectively.
We've been seeing a tremendous increase in the number of people applying and approved each day," says Gwenda Bond in the Kentucky Cabinet for Health and Family Services. "We've been seeing about 3,100 each day and I suspect that's even higher this week."
According to the state, an estimated 350,000 uninsured Kentuckians have enrolled in Medicaid or private coverage.