OK, REPUBLICANS: PICK YOUR (OUR) POISON.
2019 OPEN ENROLLMENT ENDS (most states)
Time: D H M S
OK. Here we go. First, just as a refresher: Here's what the Individual Market was supposed to look like under the Affordable Care Act:
Here's what it actually looks like for a variety of reasons, including both legitimate glitches in the ACA itself as well as a whole lot of flat-out sabotage by the GOP over the past 7 years. While there are plenty of other issues which need to be addressed, the most obvious ones are that the tax credits need to be beefed up and applied to enrollees over the 400% FPL threshold, and the mandate penalty should really be increased. In short, two legs of the stool need to be lengthened...to continue the metaphor, we need a couple of shims. Around $12 billion per year or so should do the trick on the tax credit side. As it happens, one of the few useful parts of most of the GOP plans is that they do include a good $120 billion or so in "reinsurance/stabilization" funding over 10 years...which, in practice, would amount to about the same thing. The key is that this funding would have to be added to the existing ACA funding, not replacing it, which is what these plans do instead:
INSTEAD here are the various options which have been tossed around by Congressional Republicans the past six months. Notice how none of them involve actually filling in the gaps above (because that might require...GASP!...raising taxes by a bit! The horror! Instead, every one of them involves chopping up or ripping away part or all of the various legs of the stool.
Also note that
Also note that I'm not even addressing the Medicaid side of the equation, which would screw even more people over in most of these scenarios.
Here's what it would look like under the House GOP's bill, the "AHCA", which almost died in March but then passed by a whisker back in May:
Here's what it would look like under the Senate GOP version ("BCRAP"), without the Godawful "Cruz-Lee" amendment attached (which would likely make things even worse):
UPDATE: OK, apparently the Senate GOP's own version of Obamacare repeal couldn't even muster a simple majority, much less clearing 60 votes: It's dead (for the moment).
Here's what it would look like under "Repeal/Delay", although that's not really full repeal since all of the carrier regulations would stay in place:
UPDATE: OK, the "Repeal/Delay" variant has also gone down in flames.
Here's what it would look like under the "Skinny Repeal" variant, which was literally pulled out of Mitch McConnell's ass just a few hours ago:
And finally, just for the hell of it, here's what a Full, "Clean" Repeal of the ACA without anything replacing it would look like (which isn't on the table at all, but what the hell):
Supposedly, one, two or all four of the above GOP "plans" will be voted on...and then, assuming all of them fail, it's my understanding that Mitch McConnell could still use some obscure, arcane Senate procedural rule (as if they've followed them up until now) to strip out the text of the bill and replace it with something entirely different, presumably including the Cruz amendment (which still hasn't been scored by the CBO yet either).
So basically, the "final" version of the bill could be one of the above...or something totally unrelated to anything you see here, making it all a bunch of pointless bullshit.