Texas: 2016 weighted avg. rate requests: 15.8% likely, 16.6% maximum
2018 MIDTERM ELECTION
Time: D H M S
IMPORTANT: See this detailed explanation of how I've come up with the following estimated maximum weighted average rate increase request for Texas.
UPDATE 8/4/15: Revised table to display maximum, likely and minimum statewide average increase requests:
Assuming you've read through the explanation linked to above, here's my best estimate of the maximum possible rate increase requests for the Texas individual market:
Again, the full explanation is included in the Missouri estimate, but to the best of my knowledge, it looks like the companies requesting rate increases higher than 10% come in at a weighted 19% increase, but only make up about 74% of the total ACA-compliant individual market, with the other 6 companies requesting increases of less than 10% (or possibly even decreases in some cases) make up the other 26%. Assuming this is accurate, the worst-case scenario for Texas would be around a 16.6% weighted average rate hike. The 6 "missing" companies likely range from 0 - 9.9%, so the more likely average is around 15.8%.
As noted repeatedly in the explanation, the total market size could be higher (but is unlikely to be lower), while the <10% average could be lower than that. Either of these should result in the overall weighted average being lower than the percentages shown.