Confirmed 2015 QHPs: 11,693,550 as of 3/02/15
Estimated: 11.76M (8.96M via HCgov) as of 3/02/15

state-level targets (revised) 
Estimated 2015 ACA Policy Enrollment: 32.4M
(10.3M Exchange QHPs, 8.0M OFF-Exchange QHPs, 200K SHOP, 13.9M Medicaid/CHIP)


FINAL 2014 QHPs (as of 11/14/14): 6.7M Current / 8.4M PAID / 9.6M Total
TOTAL: 6.7M Exchange QHPs, 8.0M Off-Exchange QHPs, 10.7M Medicaid/CHIP, 2.0M assorted

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UPDATE: I've confirmed that Maryland and Massachusetts do both plan on continuing to issue at least monthly reports during the off season (I'd prefer weekly but I'll take what I can get).

As of today (February 27th), the 2015 Open Enrollment Period has ended in 47 states (KY, MD, NY & WA states are still allowing "In Line by Midnight" extensions through tomorrow night or all the way out until April, and CO, CT, DC & HI have taken a sort of "case by case basis" approach with no specific hard deadline).

I keep reading stories like this one at the Washington Examiner lately (about the GOP hand-wringing over the potential backlash if they "win" the King v. Burwell case at the Supreme Court):

GOP scrambles to keep Obamacare subsidies flowing in case of Supreme Court victory

There's an easy solution. See below.

Last Sunday I decided to round up all of the different "overtime period" policies onto a single page, which has been linked to as a resource by a bunch of media outlets. Today I'm doing the same thing for the Tax Filing Season special enrollment period, which has already been announced for 40 41 45 states as of 2/26:

Back in January, I summed up the sham King v. Burwell case as follows:

Furthermore, the other 20-30% would likely have a much higher percentage of people with truly serious medical issues, in turn causing the very "death spiral" of increasing premiums which ACA opponents claimed would happen if the law operated under the current situation (but which never happened).

In other words, the "death spiral" didn't happen the way they thought it would, so they're making damned sure that it does happen by tearing the law apart any way they can.

I was being pithy, but my point was completely serious.

Today, Wendell Potter notes that the Republicans may have succeeded in destroying the lives of millions of people even if the Supreme Court ends up shooting down the King plaintiffs:

Back in December, I noted that Michigan's implementation of the ACA's Medicaid expansion provision had achieved an impressive 99.4% of it's theoretical maximum enrollment. Official state administration estimates pegged the number of Michiganders eligible for the program at around 477,000, and as of 12/08/14, enrollment had hit 474K.

Other estimates had Michigan's eligible population as being higher--perhaps 500,000, so I didn't think too much of it at the time. Besides, population shifts, changes in the economy and so forth could mean that an estimate from last spring had shifted up or down a bit.

Even so, as the official enrollment total broke 500K, then 510K, then 530K, I noted each increase, with increasing curiosity about the discrepancy.

Ever since I first wrote about the Halbig v. Sebelius case (later Halbig v. Burwell, then shifted over to King v. Burwell shortly thereafter), the one question I've never been able to get a straight answer on is whether Oregon, Nevada and/or New Mexico would be legally defined as "exchanges established by the state" in the even that the Supreme Court does end up ruling in favor of the King plaintiffs.

Today, I finally received as close to a definitive answer as anything, via a Politico article on the case:

Ironically, three states that experienced monumental failures when they initially tried to create exchanges might hold the closest thing to a golden ticket.

This is about as minor of an update as I can post; the actual hard enrollment number is slightly lower than the 160K figure that I already had, but it's still good to have specific data, plus it's broken out into more detail. Plus, the SHOP data is here as well (such as it is):

Open Enrollment Numbers (All Numbers Effective as of February 15, 2015)

Individual Marketplace

A few weeks back I posted a wildly speculative look at what the rest of 2015 might look like (assuming, that is, that the Supreme Court doesn't blow all of my enrollment models out of the water this June with a horrible King v. Burwell ruling).

At the time, I made a pretty ambitious assumption about how many people might enroll during the special 2015 Tax Filing Season enrollment period...I figured a good 1.8 million might do so.

Since then, I've thought it over and decided to be more cautious--I honestly have no clue how many people will follow through and enroll during this period (all I know for sure is that the total number eligible to enroll is somewhere between 0 and 6 million nationally). In the interest of caution, I'm lopping this down to just 1 million even today (it could be higher or lower, of course).

My other assumptions remain the same: An 88% payment rate (for the 1st month) and a roughly 2% net monthly attrition rate, plus about 9K/day enrolling during the "truly" off-season (ie, no special enrollment periods, major life events only).

Since the 2015 Open Enrollment Period began, in addition to the weekly HC.gov "snapshot" reports which gave state-by-state breakouts of exchange-based private policy enrollments, the Oregon Insurance Division has also been tracking and reporting the number at their site...along with off-exchange (direct) QHP policies. As the only state reporting the off-exchange data on a regular basis, OR has become the only hard source I have for this number (other states like Washington, Florida and Louisiana report off-exchange data as well, but only on a quarterly or annual basis).

Their exchange-based data has always lagged slightly behind the HC.gov number, partly because the thru-dates don't match up and partly because at least one of the insurance companies in Oregon only reports paid enrollments instead of plans selected. Still, with the final week or two of HC.gov data missing at the moment, this is a handy estimate of how things played out in the final "overtime" enrollment week:

Members enrolled,
Nov. 15-Feb. 22
On Healthcare.gov 113,219
Outside of Healthcare.gov 102,232

Total 215,451​

Last July, I came up with a rather idiotic-sounding "solution" to the "problem" caused by the infamous King v. Burwell court case:

So, the question becomes, just how much of the "establishment" has to be done by the state, and how much is allowed for by the Feds? For that matter, if "the state" contracts out the actual site development work to a private corporation, that's technically not being done by "the state" or "the Feds"...it's being done by a private company which is simply paid for their services by one or the other (ie, the Oracle debacle in Oregon; CGI Federal at the Federal level; Deloitte or Accenture in other states, etc).

In other words, what do "established by" and "facilitates participation" actually mean?

Depending on the answer to those and related questions, there could be an incredibly stupid-sounding solution.

I'm referring to domain names.

Yes, that's right: For just $9.95 apiece (or less, if you shop around), the United States Federal Government could simply ask the health departments of the 36 states in question to snap up a domain name along the lines of:

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